Gene§i§
2011-04-28 23:51:10 UTC
By Tim Harper, National Affairs Columnist QUEBEC CITY
WINDS OF CHANGE BUFFET HARPER
He set the bar himself.
So, plain and simple, if Stephen Harper does not win a majority Monday, he has lost.
He will have to deal with the fact that after five years in power, and after four elections as
leader, Canadians do not trust him with a majority.
It would seem inconceivable the Conservative leader would get a fifth kick at the can.
Harper made this a referendum on his leadership by moving the call for a majority from its
one-time status as the radioactive third rail of his campaign to his daily mantra.
In the final 72 hours of this race, it would take nothing short of political sleight-of-hand to
get him where he wants to go.
Facing probable losses in British Columbia and Quebec, a Conservative majority would be the
greatest triumph imaginable for the partys strategy of micro-targeting key ridings across the
country.
Should Harper fall short he will face deserved criticism from his base for the way he has waged
this campaign.
He has spent weeks delivering a low-key recitation of his March budget, actively avoiding any
collision with news.
He has appealed to voter fatigue, grumbling about an unnecessary vote that Canadians didnt
want, only to watch the mid-campaign debates win record television ratings.
Then an unprecedented number of Canadians flocked to advance polls.
Conservatives so effectively demonized Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, they merely shook the
anti-Harper vote loose for Jack Layton, then seemed slow to react to the NDP leaders late and
improbable campaign challenge.
During the past three days, the Conservative leader has slowly ratcheted up his attacks on
Layton, the party apparently believing that a quick pivot and a full-out assault on the NDP
would betray a sense of panic in this campaign.
They are banking on the crucial final 72 hours of this campaign to plant enough doubt about
Layton, his pie-in-the-sky economics and his archaic policies.
This, however, is not a typical 72-hour close because much of Harpers message will be eclipsed
by the royal nuptials an ocean away.
During three separate Ontario stops this week, the Conservative leader has gradually dropped
any reference to Ignatieff in his stump speeches and referred to the ramshackle coalition
headed by Layton.
He told supporters in St. Catharines that it can take 25 years to dig the country out of the
type of bad decisions that would be made by an NDP-led coalition.
He has dismissed the NDP leader as all smiles and snake oil and he has raised the Bob Rae
bogeyman, reminding Ontario voters of the 1990-1995 NDP government.
Thursday, in the shadow of the U.S. border, he said Layton would set back Canada-U.S. relations
for a generation, accusing the NDP of languishing in a Cold War era view of global trade,
particularly with the countrys largest trade partner.
The NDP support has firmed, not softened.
Harpers final campaign week has been a logistical nightmare.
The man who preaches stability has encountered turmoil everywhere.
Tuesday night, fog of epic proportions forced his flight to be diverted from Kitchener to
Toronto.
Wednesday, apocalyptic thunder storms descended on Waterloo as he left a local manufacturing
plant.
Thursday, winds of biblical force buffeted his bus as he departed Niagara Falls, then a fire
broke out across the street from the hotel at which he had just spoken.
Reporters following Harper to a winery tour were involved in a minor car accident and trees
were uprooted along the road.
As he and his wife Laureen looked out at the falls with the wind whipping their hair, Harper
turned to the cameras and smiled.
The winds of change, Harper said.
It was left to Rob Nicholson, the justice minister in the last government, to correct his boss
mangled metaphor.
Blowing our way, Nicholson said, after some nervous laughter.
Maybe Harper had it right after all.
===============================================================
Rise up, Canada !
WINDS OF CHANGE BUFFET HARPER
He set the bar himself.
So, plain and simple, if Stephen Harper does not win a majority Monday, he has lost.
He will have to deal with the fact that after five years in power, and after four elections as
leader, Canadians do not trust him with a majority.
It would seem inconceivable the Conservative leader would get a fifth kick at the can.
Harper made this a referendum on his leadership by moving the call for a majority from its
one-time status as the radioactive third rail of his campaign to his daily mantra.
In the final 72 hours of this race, it would take nothing short of political sleight-of-hand to
get him where he wants to go.
Facing probable losses in British Columbia and Quebec, a Conservative majority would be the
greatest triumph imaginable for the partys strategy of micro-targeting key ridings across the
country.
Should Harper fall short he will face deserved criticism from his base for the way he has waged
this campaign.
He has spent weeks delivering a low-key recitation of his March budget, actively avoiding any
collision with news.
He has appealed to voter fatigue, grumbling about an unnecessary vote that Canadians didnt
want, only to watch the mid-campaign debates win record television ratings.
Then an unprecedented number of Canadians flocked to advance polls.
Conservatives so effectively demonized Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff, they merely shook the
anti-Harper vote loose for Jack Layton, then seemed slow to react to the NDP leaders late and
improbable campaign challenge.
During the past three days, the Conservative leader has slowly ratcheted up his attacks on
Layton, the party apparently believing that a quick pivot and a full-out assault on the NDP
would betray a sense of panic in this campaign.
They are banking on the crucial final 72 hours of this campaign to plant enough doubt about
Layton, his pie-in-the-sky economics and his archaic policies.
This, however, is not a typical 72-hour close because much of Harpers message will be eclipsed
by the royal nuptials an ocean away.
During three separate Ontario stops this week, the Conservative leader has gradually dropped
any reference to Ignatieff in his stump speeches and referred to the ramshackle coalition
headed by Layton.
He told supporters in St. Catharines that it can take 25 years to dig the country out of the
type of bad decisions that would be made by an NDP-led coalition.
He has dismissed the NDP leader as all smiles and snake oil and he has raised the Bob Rae
bogeyman, reminding Ontario voters of the 1990-1995 NDP government.
Thursday, in the shadow of the U.S. border, he said Layton would set back Canada-U.S. relations
for a generation, accusing the NDP of languishing in a Cold War era view of global trade,
particularly with the countrys largest trade partner.
The NDP support has firmed, not softened.
Harpers final campaign week has been a logistical nightmare.
The man who preaches stability has encountered turmoil everywhere.
Tuesday night, fog of epic proportions forced his flight to be diverted from Kitchener to
Toronto.
Wednesday, apocalyptic thunder storms descended on Waterloo as he left a local manufacturing
plant.
Thursday, winds of biblical force buffeted his bus as he departed Niagara Falls, then a fire
broke out across the street from the hotel at which he had just spoken.
Reporters following Harper to a winery tour were involved in a minor car accident and trees
were uprooted along the road.
As he and his wife Laureen looked out at the falls with the wind whipping their hair, Harper
turned to the cameras and smiled.
The winds of change, Harper said.
It was left to Rob Nicholson, the justice minister in the last government, to correct his boss
mangled metaphor.
Blowing our way, Nicholson said, after some nervous laughter.
Maybe Harper had it right after all.
===============================================================
Rise up, Canada !