Still more good news for NDP & Tom Mulcair . . .

[ConɀƦConɀ]

The Hill Times - Thursday, 01/23/2014 9:02 pm EST

Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader
who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll


PARLIAMENT HILL—The federal Liberal Party has gained voter
support at the expense of the governing Conservatives while public
approval of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s performance has
plunged, new polls suggest.

And, although New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is
favoured by voters, with nearly half saying he is doing a good job as
opposition leader, the NDP is still in third place when it comes to
support from decided and leaning voters, the polls by Forum Research and
Abacus Data indicate.

The Forum Research survey, however, also found that Mr. Mulcair
(Outremont, Que.) leads when voters are asked which of the leaders would
make the best Prime Minister.
Twenty nine per cent of the Forum respondents chose Mr. Mulcair, 25 per
cent favoured Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and 19 per cent
selected Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.).

Asked if they approved or disapproved of the job Mr. Harper is doing as
Prime Minister, 62 per cent of the respondents disapproved, and only 30
per cent approved.

Meanwhile, 44 per cent of the respondents approved of the way Mr.
Mulcair was doing his job as leader of the opposition and only 28 per
cent disapproved. Forty-five per cent of the respondents approved of the
way Mr. Trudeau is doing his job as Liberal leader and 36 per cent
disapproved.

Despite the support for Mr. Mulcair, the Forum Research survey last week
found 37 per cent of the voters who responded were leaning in favour of
voting Liberal or intended to vote Liberal, 28 per cent were leaning or
decided in favour of the Conservatives, but only 25 per cent were
leaning or intending to vote NDP.

The Abacus Data survey, also conducted last week, found 34 per cent of
the committed voters across Canada who responded to their survey said
they would vote Liberal, compared to 28 per cent who were prepared to
vote Conservative and 24 per cent who said they would vote NDP.

Forum Research found five per cent favoured the Bloc
Québécois and four per cent were leaning or decided in
favour of the Green Party, while Abacus found seven per cent committed
to the Green Party and five per cent would vote Bloc.

Both polling firms found an old fault line of voter opinion in
Canada—with support for the Conservative Party strongest in
Western Canada and support for the Liberals strongest in Ontario,
Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.

The Liberal Party led the Forum Research findings in Ontario with 37 per
cent support and even more, 39 per cent, in Quebec. The Conservative
Party registered with a meagre 12 per cent support from
Forum’s Quebec finding, and 33 per cent in Ontario.

Forum found 30 per cent of respondents in Quebec were leaning or
intending to vote NDP, and only 24 per cent of Ontario voters favoured
the New Democrats.

Quebec and Ontario together will account for 199 of the 338 House of
Commons seats to be contested in the next election following the
creation of 30 new electoral districts after the 2011 census.

In the four Atlantic provinces, Liberal support reached new heights in
the Forum Research survey at 58 per cent of decided and leaning voters,
with the Conservative Party at a dismal 14 per cent and the NDP at 23
per cent.

The Abacus survey found 53 per cent of voters in Atlantic Canada
intended to vote Liberal, with support for the Conservatives and the NDP
tied at 21 per cent. The Abacus results in the Atlantic appeared to
include the entire sample of committed and uncommitted voters.

In the Western Canadian provinces, the Forum Research poll found the
Conservative Party dominated Alberta with 57 per cent of support from
decided and leaning voters, led in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with 38 per
cent support, but placed second in British Columbia with 32 per cent
support from decided or leaning voters.

The Forum Research found 22 per cent of voters in Manitoba and
Saskatchewan were leaning toward voting Liberal or intended to vote that
way, while 32 per cent favoured the NDP. In B.C., the Forum results
found 36 per cent either favoured or intended to vote Liberal and 23 per
cent favoured the NDP or intended to vote that way.

The Abacus Data survey found 37 per cent of its respondents in Manitoba
and Saskatchewan intended to vote Conservative, as did 51 per cent of
its Alberta respondents and 36 per cent of B.C respondents.

Abacus found 29 per cent of voters in Manitoba and Saskatchewan intended
to vote Liberal, with 25 per cent planning to vote NDP. The Abacus poll
found 24 per cent of Alberta respondents intending to vote Liberal, and
18 per cent supporting the NDP. In B.C., the Abacus survey found 26 per
cent planning to vote Liberal and 25 per cent intended to vote NDP.

“The (country) is now divided again along the Manitoba and
Ontario border between a blue western Canada and a red eastern Canada
with orange hues concentrated in B.C. and Quebec,” said David
Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data.

Bruce Anderson, a prominent political analyst and the chair of Abacus
Data, noted other aspects of the survey found that the Conservative
Party and the NDP have each lost more than 25 per cent of their voters
since 2011, while the Liberals have lost only 12 per cent and
picked up “most of what drifted away from the other
two parties.”

“The new bottom line is this, neither the Conservatives nor
the NDP can win unless they reverse these patterns,” Mr.
Anderson said in a release from Abacus.

The two Abacus analysts said the Liberal Party will be battling to keep
votes it has won back from both the NDP and the Conservatives since the
last election.

Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff noted his firm’s
survey found that as Mr. Mulcair’s popularity remained high
and even increased in some areas, Mr. Trudeau’s support
dropped slightly over the month.

“While the Liberals continue to be the party to beat as the
race stands now, it seems this primacy is no longer dependent on
favourable impressions of Justin Trudeau,” Mr.
Bozinoff said. “It may be that party policies and initiatives
now carry more weight than his winning personality.”

Forum Research conducted its poll on Jan. 16 and Jan. 17 with an
interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,779 randomly selected
Canadians of voting age. That size of a national survey has a margin of
error of plus or minus two per cent 19 times out of 20.

Abacus conducted an online survey with 1,966 respondents from Jan. 14 to
Jan. 18, but because the sample of voters was not randomly selected, a
margin of error could not be calculated.



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“It is horrifying that we have to fight our own
government to save the environment.” ― Ansel Adams

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Greg Carr]

Post by ConɀƦConɀ
The Hill Times - Thursday, 01/23/2014 9:02 pm EST
Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader
who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll
PARLIAMENT HILL—The federal Liberal Party has gained voter
support at the expense of the governing Conservatives while public
approval of Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s performance has
plunged, new polls suggest.
And, although New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is
favoured by voters, with nearly half saying he is doing a good job as
opposition leader, the NDP is still in third place when it comes to
support from decided and leaning voters, the polls by Forum Research and
Abacus Data indicate.
The Forum Research survey, however, also found that Mr. Mulcair
(Outremont, Que.) leads when voters are asked which of the leaders would
make the best Prime Minister.
Twenty nine per cent of the Forum respondents chose Mr. Mulcair, 25 per
cent favoured Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and 19 per cent
selected Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.).
Asked if they approved or disapproved of the job Mr. Harper is doing as
Prime Minister, 62 per cent of the respondents disapproved, and only 30
per cent approved.
Meanwhile, 44 per cent of the respondents approved of the way Mr.
Mulcair was doing his job as leader of the opposition and only 28 per
cent disapproved. Forty-five per cent of the respondents approved of the
way Mr. Trudeau is doing his job as Liberal leader and 36 per cent
disapproved.
Despite the support for Mr. Mulcair, the Forum Research survey last week
found 37 per cent of the voters who responded were leaning in favour of
voting Liberal or intended to vote Liberal, 28 per cent were leaning or
decided in favour of the Conservatives, but only 25 per cent were
leaning or intending to vote NDP.
The Abacus Data survey, also conducted last week, found 34 per cent of
the committed voters across Canada who responded to their survey said
they would vote Liberal, compared to 28 per cent who were prepared to
vote Conservative and 24 per cent who said they would vote NDP.
Forum Research found five per cent favoured the Bloc
Québécois and four per cent were leaning or decided in
favour of the Green Party, while Abacus found seven per cent committed
to the Green Party and five per cent would vote Bloc.
Both polling firms found an old fault line of voter opinion in
Canada—with support for the Conservative Party strongest in
Western Canada and support for the Liberals strongest in Ontario,
Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
The Liberal Party led the Forum Research findings in Ontario with 37 per
cent support and even more, 39 per cent, in Quebec. The Conservative
Party registered with a meagre 12 per cent support from
Forum’s Quebec finding, and 33 per cent in Ontario.
Forum found 30 per cent of respondents in Quebec were leaning or
intending to vote NDP, and only 24 per cent of Ontario voters favoured
the New Democrats.
Quebec and Ontario together will account for 199 of the 338 House of
Commons seats to be contested in the next election following the
creation of 30 new electoral districts after the 2011 census.
In the four Atlantic provinces, Liberal support reached new heights in
the Forum Research survey at 58 per cent of decided and leaning voters,
with the Conservative Party at a dismal 14 per cent and the NDP at 23
per cent.
The Abacus survey found 53 per cent of voters in Atlantic Canada
intended to vote Liberal, with support for the Conservatives and the NDP
tied at 21 per cent. The Abacus results in the Atlantic appeared to
include the entire sample of committed and uncommitted voters.
In the Western Canadian provinces, the Forum Research poll found the
Conservative Party dominated Alberta with 57 per cent of support from
decided and leaning voters, led in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with 38 per
cent support, but placed second in British Columbia with 32 per cent
support from decided or leaning voters.
The Forum Research found 22 per cent of voters in Manitoba and
Saskatchewan were leaning toward voting Liberal or intended to vote that
way, while 32 per cent favoured the NDP. In B.C., the Forum results
found 36 per cent either favoured or intended to vote Liberal and 23 per
cent favoured the NDP or intended to vote that way.
The Abacus Data survey found 37 per cent of its respondents in Manitoba
and Saskatchewan intended to vote Conservative, as did 51 per cent of
its Alberta respondents and 36 per cent of B.C respondents.
Abacus found 29 per cent of voters in Manitoba and Saskatchewan intended
to vote Liberal, with 25 per cent planning to vote NDP. The Abacus poll
found 24 per cent of Alberta respondents intending to vote Liberal, and
18 per cent supporting the NDP. In B.C., the Abacus survey found 26 per
cent planning to vote Liberal and 25 per cent intended to vote NDP.
“The (country) is now divided again along the Manitoba and
Ontario border between a blue western Canada and a red eastern Canada
with orange hues concentrated in B.C. and Quebec,” said David
Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data.
Bruce Anderson, a prominent political analyst and the chair of Abacus
Data, noted other aspects of the survey found that the Conservative
Party and the NDP have each lost more than 25 per cent of their voters
since 2011, while the Liberals have lost only 12 per cent and
picked up “most of what drifted away from the other
two parties.”
“The new bottom line is this, neither the Conservatives nor
the NDP can win unless they reverse these patterns,” Mr.
Anderson said in a release from Abacus.
The two Abacus analysts said the Liberal Party will be battling to keep
votes it has won back from both the NDP and the Conservatives since the
last election.
Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff noted his firm’s
survey found that as Mr. Mulcair’s popularity remained high
and even increased in some areas, Mr. Trudeau’s support
dropped slightly over the month.
“While the Liberals continue to be the party to beat as the
race stands now, it seems this primacy is no longer dependent on
favourable impressions of Justin Trudeau,” Mr.
Bozinoff said. “It may be that party policies and initiatives
now carry more weight than his winning personality.”
Forum Research conducted its poll on Jan. 16 and Jan. 17 with an
interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,779 randomly selected
Canadians of voting age. That size of a national survey has a margin of
error of plus or minus two per cent 19 times out of 20.
Abacus conducted an online survey with 1,966 respondents from Jan. 14 to
Jan. 18, but because the sample of voters was not randomly selected, a
margin of error could not be calculated.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
“It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to
save the environment.” ― Ansel Adams
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NDP in third. Broadbent always led the polls of who would make the best
PM but never placed better than third in an election. At least if the
Liberals get in they can be counted on in balancing the budget and maybe
even paying down the debt.

[Barry Bruyea]

On Sat, 25 Jan 2014 17:51:30 -0800, Greg Carr

Post by Greg Carr

Post by ConɀƦConɀ
The Hill Times - Thursday, 01/23/2014 9:02 pm EST
Libs gain at expense of Conservatives, but Mulcair favoured as leader
who would make best Prime Minister: Forum Research poll
PARLIAMENT HILL�¢����The federal Liberal Party has gained voter
support at the expense of the governing Conservatives while public
approval of Prime Minister Stephen Harper�¢����s performance has
plunged, new polls suggest.
And, although New Democrat Leader Thomas Mulcair (Outremont, Que.) is
favoured by voters, with nearly half saying he is doing a good job as
opposition leader, the NDP is still in third place when it comes to
support from decided and leaning voters, the polls by Forum Research and
Abacus Data indicate.
The Forum Research survey, however, also found that Mr. Mulcair
(Outremont, Que.) leads when voters are asked which of the leaders would
make the best Prime Minister.
Twenty nine per cent of the Forum respondents chose Mr. Mulcair, 25 per
cent favoured Mr. Harper (Calgary Southwest, Alta.) and 19 per cent
selected Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau (Papineau, Que.).
Asked if they approved or disapproved of the job Mr. Harper is doing as
Prime Minister, 62 per cent of the respondents disapproved, and only 30
per cent approved.
Meanwhile, 44 per cent of the respondents approved of the way Mr.
Mulcair was doing his job as leader of the opposition and only 28 per
cent disapproved. Forty-five per cent of the respondents approved of the
way Mr. Trudeau is doing his job as Liberal leader and 36 per cent
disapproved.
Despite the support for Mr. Mulcair, the Forum Research survey last week
found 37 per cent of the voters who responded were leaning in favour of
voting Liberal or intended to vote Liberal, 28 per cent were leaning or
decided in favour of the Conservatives, but only 25 per cent were
leaning or intending to vote NDP.
The Abacus Data survey, also conducted last week, found 34 per cent of
the committed voters across Canada who responded to their survey said
they would vote Liberal, compared to 28 per cent who were prepared to
vote Conservative and 24 per cent who said they would vote NDP.
Forum Research found five per cent favoured the Bloc
Qu���©b���©cois and four per cent were leaning or decided in
favour of the Green Party, while Abacus found seven per cent committed
to the Green Party and five per cent would vote Bloc.
Both polling firms found an old fault line of voter opinion in
Canada�¢����with support for the Conservative Party strongest in
Western Canada and support for the Liberals strongest in Ontario,
Quebec, and the Atlantic provinces.
The Liberal Party led the Forum Research findings in Ontario with 37 per
cent support and even more, 39 per cent, in Quebec. The Conservative
Party registered with a meagre 12 per cent support from
Forum�¢����s Quebec finding, and 33 per cent in Ontario.
Forum found 30 per cent of respondents in Quebec were leaning or
intending to vote NDP, and only 24 per cent of Ontario voters favoured
the New Democrats.
Quebec and Ontario together will account for 199 of the 338 House of
Commons seats to be contested in the next election following the
creation of 30 new electoral districts after the 2011 census.
In the four Atlantic provinces, Liberal support reached new heights in
the Forum Research survey at 58 per cent of decided and leaning voters,
with the Conservative Party at a dismal 14 per cent and the NDP at 23
per cent.
The Abacus survey found 53 per cent of voters in Atlantic Canada
intended to vote Liberal, with support for the Conservatives and the NDP
tied at 21 per cent. The Abacus results in the Atlantic appeared to
include the entire sample of committed and uncommitted voters.
In the Western Canadian provinces, the Forum Research poll found the
Conservative Party dominated Alberta with 57 per cent of support from
decided and leaning voters, led in Manitoba and Saskatchewan with 38 per
cent support, but placed second in British Columbia with 32 per cent
support from decided or leaning voters.
The Forum Research found 22 per cent of voters in Manitoba and
Saskatchewan were leaning toward voting Liberal or intended to vote that
way, while 32 per cent favoured the NDP. In B.C., the Forum results
found 36 per cent either favoured or intended to vote Liberal and 23 per
cent favoured the NDP or intended to vote that way.
The Abacus Data survey found 37 per cent of its respondents in Manitoba
and Saskatchewan intended to vote Conservative, as did 51 per cent of
its Alberta respondents and 36 per cent of B.C respondents.
Abacus found 29 per cent of voters in Manitoba and Saskatchewan intended
to vote Liberal, with 25 per cent planning to vote NDP. The Abacus poll
found 24 per cent of Alberta respondents intending to vote Liberal, and
18 per cent supporting the NDP. In B.C., the Abacus survey found 26 per
cent planning to vote Liberal and 25 per cent intended to vote NDP.
�¢����The (country) is now divided again along the Manitoba and
Ontario border between a blue western Canada and a red eastern Canada
with orange hues concentrated in B.C. and Quebec,�¢���� said David
Coletto, chief executive officer of Abacus Data.
Bruce Anderson, a prominent political analyst and the chair of Abacus
Data, noted other aspects of the survey found that the Conservative
Party and the NDP have each lost more than 25 per cent of their voters
since 2011, while the Liberals have lost only 12 per cent and
picked up �¢����most of what drifted away from the other
two parties.�¢����
�¢����The new bottom line is this, neither the Conservatives nor
the NDP can win unless they reverse these patterns,�¢���� Mr.
Anderson said in a release from Abacus.
The two Abacus analysts said the Liberal Party will be battling to keep
votes it has won back from both the NDP and the Conservatives since the
last election.
Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff noted his firm�¢����s
survey found that as Mr. Mulcair�¢����s popularity remained high
and even increased in some areas, Mr. Trudeau�¢����s support
dropped slightly over the month.
�¢����While the Liberals continue to be the party to beat as the
race stands now, it seems this primacy is no longer dependent on
favourable impressions of Justin Trudeau,�¢���� Mr.
Bozinoff said. �¢����It may be that party policies and initiatives
now carry more weight than his winning personality.�¢����
Forum Research conducted its poll on Jan. 16 and Jan. 17 with an
interactive voice response telephone survey of 1,779 randomly selected
Canadians of voting age. That size of a national survey has a margin of
error of plus or minus two per cent 19 times out of 20.
Abacus conducted an online survey with 1,966 respondents from Jan. 14 to
Jan. 18, but because the sample of voters was not randomly selected, a
margin of error could not be calculated.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
�¢����It is horrifying that we have to fight our own government to
save the environment.�¢���� �¢���� Ansel Adams
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

NDP in third. Broadbent always led the polls of who would make the best
PM but never placed better than third in an election. At least if the
Liberals get in they can be counted on in balancing the budget and maybe
even paying down the debt.

I wouldn't hold your breath on that one.